The transition to a lower net emissions New Zealand

The project supported the New Zealand Productivity Commission’s low emissions economy inquiry, by developing a model to guide its assessments of transition options, opportunities and risks. It modeled the impact of policy and investment strategies, under a range of uncertain future circumstances to evaluate the feasibility of targets, quantify potential mitigation costs and identify robust economic strategies.

Modelling the transition to a lower net emissions New Zealand examined the impacts of decision making under uncertainty by considering how different decisions impact outcomes of interest, such as economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, under uncertain future states of the world. The modelling occurred in two phases, with the Interim Report considering the impacts of stronger and weaker emissions reductions targets, while the Uncertainty Analysis focused on assessing the performance of strategies under deep uncertainty.

To do so this project utilised outputs from Concept Consulting’s Energy in New Zealand Model and Motu Economic and Public Policy Research’s Land Use in Rural New Zealand models. Vivid Economics were responsible for developing the modeled scenarios, interpreting model outputs and drafting the reports.

The Interim Report is available for download here. 

The Uncertainty Analysis is available for download here.

Date: April 2018



New Zealand Productivity Commission and the Ministry for the Environment


Agriculture, Forestry & Land Use


Carbon Markets
Net Zero Transitions


Central & South Asia