Long-term energy supply model and scenario development
Vivid Economics was commissioned by a major industrial firm to develop an energy supply framework within which its investment modelling could take place. The project involved an evaluation of the history and context of energy supply, identification of key variables affecting energy supply, presentation of trends in these key variables, and an evaluation of energy supply modelling and scenarios. These variables were linked to other variables relevant to the firm’s sector and placed into a detailed model structure for the firm’s modelling team to develop in house. Expert interviews were employed to explore issues not well covered in published literature and uncertainty was qualitatively described through the help of a Delphi exercise. The approach was tested with a case study on specific markets in the energy sector.